I usually just talk technology on this blog, but the recent events involving my blog on Google Glass using Himax’s panel caused some fascinating movement in Himax’s stock price. There have been several moves of over one hundred million dollars of movement which has been at least in part attributed to my blog and.or my comments. One other thing, I have never had any position in Himax stock (not that I haven’t wished I had bought and sold based on my own blog and comments).
In this blog on Thursday Feb 28, 2013 I reported that I had figured out that there was a Himax color filter LCOS panel in the early Google Glass prototypes based on pictures of the internal components. To me it was a technical puzzle to solve first posed by Picopros.com on Feb. 22nd. I was careful to also include in my blog post on Feb 28th, and then added to it on March 2nd that it was doubtful that the newer Google Glass devices used an LCOS panel because it would not fit. I was trying to frank and fair so that people would not over react (for what little good that did). This got my blog going that had been dormant for about 6 months.
It turns out that Mark Gomes was following my blog and combined my information (which he cited) with information he and his associates collected into an article he wrote on Seeking Alpha late Monday March 4th / Early March 5th (depending on the time zone) that Himax was in Google Glass. Then all heck broke loose. Himax stock jump about 38% that morning and added about $223M to Himax’s market cap by about 12:40 PM EST on March 5th.
About the time Himax stock hit its high, I found out about the Seeking Alpha article and posted a comment reiterating what my blog post had stated that I didn’t think the Himax panel was used in the newest prototypes (there were also comments from others stating the same). Himax then stock dropped back about 16% or about $135M in market cap. (Gad, I should have shorted before I wrote that comment 🙂 ).
I was frankly concerned perhaps Mark Gomes had taken my information out of context which is why I commented back. In subsequent public comments both on my blog and his instablogs, Mr. Gomes has insisted that my information was only one source that he had combined with other information including direct contact with Himax.
Himax stock then settled down on March 6th (up over $100 from it March 4th close) but then that night Digitimes wrote an article stating that Himax was in Google Glass. But this article in my opinion looks to be an “echo” of the information on Seeking Alpha and doesn’t give any other sources. Still Himax stock jump about $105M on what looks to me to be just an echo before settling back some but still much higher than before as of this writing.
Anyway, what I wild ride and I didn’t have a penny to gain (or lose), in fact it has cost me to take a lot of time answering questions from analysts that have contacted me. Also for the conspiracy minded, ALL the correspondence I have had with Mark Gomes to date have been in public either in my comments on Seeking Alpha or in his comments on this blog. You can follow our back and forth on this blog or in the original seeking Alpha article or in at least (as of this writing) follow up articles on Mark Gomes’s instablog.
One last teaser for the next article I am planning on doing (some of this is included in my back and forth public comments to Mark Gomes), I don’t think Google Glass is going to be a big market, at least any time soon. So it really doesn’t matter whose panel is in the prototype, at least in my opinion (buy or sell or do nothing at your own risk 🙂 ). If there wasn’t so much money flying around, it would be sort of funny, then again maybe it is.